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COP24 on Climate Change: Delay after Delay, Time Is Running out Dangerously
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Hits: 211
Roberto Palea
Member and former President of the Centre for Studies on Federalism
The 24th Conference on Climate Change (COP 24[i]) was convened in Katowice, Poland, with the objective of establishing how to implement the commitments made in Paris in 2015 by the 195 signatory countries; and how to align the various National Plans on climate (the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs) by 2020 with the objective of maintaining the average increase in earth's temperature well below + 2°C, above pre-industrial levels; and how to divide among the industrialized Countries the funding of the Green Climate Fund, established in Cancun in 2010 but remained on paper ever since.
The importance of the mission of the 200 countries’ representatives gathered in Katowice was dramatically emphasized by the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres[ii], who affirmed that we urgently need to move from declarations to facts, as “the world is still totally on the wrong path”.
“Even if we witness devastating climatic events causing havoc across the world, we are still not doing enough, nor moving fast enough […].It is a matter of life or death”.
As a matter of fact, since the Paris Agreement of 2015 the political circumstances and the environmental state of the Planet have dramatically worsened.
The President of the United States – the Country responsible for 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions[iii] –, Donald Trump, has confirmed his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement as soon as it becomes legally possible (three years after its entry into force, and therefore after 2019). The effects of this defection will be partly mitigated by the declared intentions, in sharp disagreement with President Trump's, of some important member States of the American Federation (such as California and the State of New York), namely to unilaterally respect and possibly even speed-up the emission reduction targets set by the Paris Agreement. Moreover, the democratic majority of the US Congress, emerged from the recent mid-term elections, is strongly oriented towards an ecologically progressive direction. The opposition of the United States has stimulated an emulation effect, thus reinforcing the disengagement of those nations that consider their primary task to defend short-term national interests. As a consequence, the new President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, as well as the States rich in coal mines and gas fields (such as Poland, led by Andrzej Duda) and Australia, have expressed their opposition.
In a special report[iv] published on October 8, 2018, leading scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirm that, given the climate evolution over the last decade and its assessed impacts, it is imperative to limit global warming to 1.5°C, rather than 2.0° or more, to avoid irreparable consequences; and that we have only 12 more years left to reach climate stabilization within the limit of 1.5°C, otherwise the situation will become irreversible and out of control. The IPCC report concludes that in order to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial level, it is necessary to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 45% within 2030.
Furthermore, after a 3-year decrease phase, from 2014 to 2016, greenhouse gas emissions are now rising again. As a consequence, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated a 1.4% increase of global emissions in 2017[v] and an additional, higher growth in 2018, as a result of the growth in oil and, mainly, gas consumption in the World, especially in China. Whilst, according to the IEA, emissions should be reduced by at least 1% per year until 2025, to stay on the pathway set by the Paris Agreement.
In this critical scenario, between pressures towards more ambitious targets and threats to cancel the undersigned Agreements, the conclusions of Katowice COP24 have favoured the selfishness of individual Countries, showing disregard for the environmental climate change disasters registered all over the world, and indifference to scientists' warnings. Once more, the need to face climate emergency together, through properly funded supranational institutions, has been set aside.
In order to avoid a monumental diplomatic failure, the well-tried and tested postponement technique was again used.
Since the Paris Agreement should enter into force in 2020, the Parties to the Katowice Conference have agreed upon a common measuring and reporting system for greenhouse gas emissions and the INDCs, approving a Rulebook to be applied to both developed and developing countries without distinction. On the other hand, the attempt to make clear which nations – considering the historical responsibilities of the industrialised countries for the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere – will have to contribute, and the amount of each contribution to the funding of the Green Climate Fund (decided in Paris in 2015), amounting to at least 100 billion dollars a year, was in the end unsuccessful.
Positive points that are worth noting are:
- the growing mobilization of citizens, especially young people, all over the world, with public demonstrations and marches, asking for a strong global action to contrast the climate crisis we are facing;
- the constitution, in Katowice, of a High Ambition Coalition, – gathering, among others, the majority of European Countries, the City of London and Canada – which is committed to increase, by 2020, the emissions reduction objectives signed in Paris. To this regard, the above mentioned European Countries and the European Parliament (at its plenary session of October 25, 2018)[vi], in line with the critical threshold of 1.5°C, proposed to review the objective set for 2030, and go beyond 55% in emissions reduction. This will constitute a strong driving force for other Countries, able to turn into concrete actions the commitments of the Paris Agreements.
Considering the repeated, even if vague, declarations of readiness by the European Commission[vii], we can still hope that the European Union will maintain its leadership role in the fight against climate change, involving the European Council in this struggle.
In our opinion, the EU should create an Environment and Energy Agency, following the model of the European Coal and Steel Community of 1951, endowed with supranational powers and adequate financial resources.
With a high degree of autonomy and under a unitary direction, it would be possible to implement effective policies to reduce polluting emissions and develop renewable energies, in order to achieve the Union's energy self-sufficiency. At the same time, it would be possible to promote partnerships with African Countries and companies, aimed at developing energy infrastructures in those solar-rich countries, in order to generate clean energy in Africa, a prerequisite to promote an endogenous economic development and solve the problem of the lack of drinking water (wells, desalination of sea water) in that continent.
As a consequence, by rooting African population in their own territory and defeating malnutrition, disease and underdevelopment, migratory flows would slow down as well.
The proposed Environment and Energy Agency could finance its activities through the imposition of a carbon tax at the European level (collected at the border of the EU on imports of goods and products) and at the national level. The national carbon tax, applied with the same criteria by all EU member states, could contribute to reduce the taxation on business and work income (reducing the tax wedge), while substantial contributions for funding the common activity could be given by the national States to the Agency (in any case entitled to finance itself on the market).
This initiative would be an example and a model for the whole world.
One variable is still to be considered: how much time do we effectively have in order to avoid a global climate-change catastrophe, a time that is rapidly running out?
Will Humanity succeed in realizing that we are seriously behind time and that we must act immediately, and escape the shortsighted and perverse logic of the national states?
[ii] https://theeagleonline.com.ng/cop24-climate-change-conference-must-succeed-un-chief-tells-g20/
[iii] https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissons/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data
[iv] http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr 15/
[v] https://www.iea.org/geco/emissions
[vi] http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+MOTION+B8-2018-0477+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN
