Year XXXVIII, Number 1, March 2025

Citizens for Global Solutions

In the face of Donald Trump’s re-election the EU must take its destiny into its own hands.

Donald Trump's re-election is likely to upset three principles that are at the very foundation of Europe's way of life and prosperity: an economy largely based on transatlantic trade, security mainly dependent on NATO, and political systems founded on liberal democracy and a belief in the possibility of concord between peoples.

This is not a new observation. For years, various studies, articles and reports have been alerting European public opinion to this triple risk.

Firstly, that the European Union [EU] is falling behind China and the United States economically and technologically: the Draghi report recently reminded us that Europe has never recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, that it has missed the digital boat and that it no longer attracts investors.

Isolationism

Then there is the shadow cast over Europe's security by Russia's actions and the United States' retreat; the election campaign has shown that isolationism is in vogue among American citizens, who seem concerned only about their country's relations with China.

The third risk is that of a global challenge to the values of liberal democracy that underpin the political systems and institutions of the States of the Union; the violent diatribes that are now a daily feature of American political life show that these values are in a bad way, and that powerful forces are promoting a much more brutal conception of the public sphere.

Europe has its back to the wall and must prepare for alarming developments. That of an openly protectionist US policy and a more or less virulent denial of the principles that have underpinned international trade since the Second World War. That of a more or less rapid and pronounced American disinvestment from global security mechanisms. And finally, a questioning of the virtues of liberal democracy.

In this critical context, European integration has run out of projects, budgets and leadership. In the member states, no political leader seems able or willing to move things forward on a European scale; with the election of Donald Trump, national sauve-qui-peut is to be feared.

Radical ideas have the wind in their sails

On the Commission side, Ursula von der Leyen's reappointment came at a time when many heads of state and government were in difficulty, and was accompanied by the departure of the strongest personalities within the College of Commissioners: it is likely that, in the name of her Atlanticist views, she will not want to take any initiative that might displease the American authorities.

In civil society, radical ideas are on the rise, and there is a strong temptation to fall back on protectionism and nationalism, as in the United States.

At a time when budget discussions are raging in France, it's also worth remembering that, while the US federal budget represents around the country's gross domestic product (GDP), that of the European Union is limited to 1% of the GDP of the Twenty-Seven. With such a low budgetary capacity, the EU cannot take any major action in terms of industrial policy, innovation, social action, ecological transition or defense.

Forthcoming budget debates will inevitably raise the question of a new distribution of available funding, with the risk of seeing essential sectors for the European Union, such as agriculture, regional policy or education and research, sacrificed.

Ambitious and uncomfortable decisions

It must accelerate economic and technological integration to give its companies the means to compete on a global scale, in a world where the rules of the game are changing rapidly.

It must also ensure its collective military security, in the face of the dual threat posed by Russian imperialism and the retreat of the United States.

Finally, it must vigorously defend its values, the attention it pays to social progress, freedoms and environmental protection, and fight effectively against foreign interference in its democratic life.

Such a leap forward could be embodied, without delay, in the establishment of a European defense framework. This is not an easy task, as it raises complex questions that will require courageous answers.

Should an increase in military spending be accompanied by a reduction in other investments or an increase in taxes? Is it possible to conceive of European defense without greater political integration and the creation of - possibly federal - institutions capable of taking decisions on behalf of the Union? How can we support the socio-economic changes brought about by massive investment in a common defense industrial policy?

To safeguard its future, the European Union has to make ambitious and uncomfortable decisions. The upheavals underway in both East and West are an urgent call for greater boldness, at a time when the smallest European initiative requires a wealth of diplomacy and endless negotiations. Only greater integration will enable us to combat imperial ambitions and ensure Europe's security after the end of the pax americana.

Signatories: Arvind Ashta, consultant/researcher, Building Humane Advances and Institutions/BHAI, Toulouse ; Robert Belot, university professor (history), Saint-Etienne University ; Christine Bertrand, lecturer in public law, Clermont-Auvergne University ; Frédérique Berrod, university professor (law), Sciences Po Strasbourg ; Yann Moulier-Boutang, university professor emeritus (economics), Compiègne University of Technology; Christophe Chabrot, lecturer (public law), Lumière-Lyon-II University; Olivier Costa, CNRS research director, Cevipof – Sciences Po ; Michel Devoluy, honorary university professor (economics), University of Strasbourg; Sophie Heine, author and consultant, associate researcher at the Egmont Institute; Jacques Fayette, honorary university professor (management sciences), University of Lyon-III; Marc Lazar, professor emeritus of history and political sociology, Sciences Po ; Gaëlle Marti, Professor of Public Law, Université Jean-Moulin-Lyon-III; Alexandre Melnik, Professor, ICN Business School Nancy-Metz; Ghislaine Pellat, Associate Professor (Management), Université Grenoble-Alpes; Céline Spector, Professor (Philosophy), Sorbonne Université.

All signatories are members of the scientific council of the Union of European Federalists (UEF).

This article was first published in Le Monde, on November 11, 2024