Year XXXVII, Number 1, March 2024

Roberto Palea
Former President of the Centro Studi sul Federalismo (CSF) and a member of EAERE,
European Association of Environmental and Resources Economists)

The COP 28 in Dubai ended after 14 days with an Agreement recognizing the need to transition from fossil fuels to alternative forms of energy production.

Commentators express skepticism towards the decisions made in Dubai during a Conference organized and presented by a not-so-democratic country, whose economic fortunes are closely tied to the production, refining, and export of fossil fuels such as oil.  For these reasons, Amnesty International's conclusions acknowledge that the Dubai Agreement can be seen as both historically significant and, conversely, as a death certificate.

Among the extreme positions, only science can help understand the true significance of the Dubai Agreement. In my opinion, the most credible sources are represented by studies from:

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO);
• The United Nations, specifically its President Guterres.
• The Global Carbon Report;
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

1. The WMO recognizes that the conference on fossil fuels concluded with a "historic" Agreement aimed at gradually abandoning fossil fuels to curb the acceleration of climate change. The WMO director, however, does not shy away from criticism, considering that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, with temperatures never reached before, and 2024 is expected to be even hotter.

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to set new record levels year after year, leading to a continuous rise in temperatures in the coming years, given the long duration of CO2.

We are simultaneously losing the race to preserve our vital glaciers, and prevent sea level rise.

Extreme weather events are multiplying, and the melting of Antarctic glaciers is alarming. Additionally, addressing climate-induced water scarcity and ensuring safe and affordable access to drinking water for everyone is crucial.

Agricultural food production, as well as food distribution and mortality rates, are suffering from the worsening climate.

2. The UN Secretary-General emphasizes the need for lasting reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% compared to the 2019 level. Achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is crucial.

He calls on parties to contribute to the following goals:

• tripling global renewable energy capacity;
• improving energy efficiency;
• eliminating coal-produced energy well before the mid-century mark;
• substantially accelerating also non-CO2 emissions reduction globally, particularly reducing disastrous methane emissions by 2030.

3. The Global Carbon Report 2023 examines the financial needs and funding sources required to support the gradual reduction of climate-altering emissions in the atmosphere.

It highlights that public funding for the fossil fuel sector, according to IMF data, increased to $7 trillion in 2023 alone, without a sufficient shift in the renewable energy sector. In contrast, a Specific Fund was established in Dubai for Loss & Damage caused by the current climate situation, which, regretfully, has collected only $570 million.

 The damages from continuous global warming amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.

Finally, the failure to announce the end of new research as well as of drilling for fossil fuel extraction (coal, gas, and oil) undermine the credibility of Dubai's declared commitment to investing adequately in renewable sources.

As a result of these policies, a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius is projected for 2050, contrary to the 1.5-2 degrees Celsius target, a scenario that is feared by scientists.

4. The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report summarizes the current state of knowledge on climate change, its widespread risks and impacts, and mitigation strategies.

IPCC scientists discovered that the temperature increase limit from the combustion of fossil fuels emitting carbon dioxide (CO2) is unprecedented in over 2000 years of observations. Even a one-degree increase can have dangerous impacts on the planet.

Moreover, IPCC climate models predict that if greenhouse gas levels continue to rise at current rates throughout the 21st century, the global average land temperature could increase by 4-5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

The median estimate calculated for the entire 2100 but related to 2050 (the timeframe assumed by the Paris Climate Agreement and the EU for achieving zero climate impact) predicts an increase between 2.5-3 degrees Celsius, which would still be beyond control.

It is worth questioning why humanity appears incapable and inadequate in addressing climate risks.

The answer is not only that of the economic interests at stake for coal and oil producers. The world is engaged in tremendous wars that were unimaginable in the preceding 70 years. I particularly refer to the wars in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which not only involve atrocities and cruelty of all kinds, but also require financial resources for armaments and the reconstruction of devastated territories. Global international institutions are unable to govern the chaos with powers and authorities worldwide that are adequate to manage geopolitical phenomena.

Just as federalists are dedicated to laboriously achieving peace and global governance, they must also commit to reducing climate emissions – which, as this paper has shown, are trending out of control. The task for federalists, then, is to advocate for global climate governance through suitable global institutions.